MACD Analisis

MACD adalah singkatan dari Moving Average Convergence / Divergence ( rata-rata pergerakan konverjensi / perbedaan), yang merupakan suatu indikator dari analisis teknis yang diciptakan oleh Gerald Appel pada tahun 1960an. MACD adalah indikator untuk kelebihan beli atau kelebihan jual dengan melihat hubungan antara MA (moving average=rata-rata pergerakan) jangka panjang dan pendek. Garis MACD adalah selisih dari 2 MA diatas. Garis kedua yaitu garis tanda adalah MA jangka pendek dari garis MACD.

MACD menunjukkan perbedaan antara eksponensial pergerakan rata-rata (exponential moving average yang biasa disingkat "EMA") yang cepat dan lambat dari harga penutupan. Beberapa pengembangan telah dilakukan atas MACD selama bertahun-tahun namun masih menyisakan masalah kelambatan pada indikatornya, sehingga sering dikritik atas kegagalannya dalam menanggapi kondisi pasar yang lemah ataupun bergejolak. Sejak runtuhnya pasar "dot-com" pada tahun 2000, kebanyakan strategi tidak lagi merekomendasikan penggunaan MACD sebagai metode utama dalam melakukan analisis namun hanya digunakan sebagai alat pemantau belaka. Periode standar yang disarankan oleh Gerald Appel pada tahun 1960an adalah dengan menggunakan periode 12 dan 26 hari:

Garis yang menjadi sinyal atau garis pemicu adalah terbentuk dengan memperhalus rumusan tersebut dengan is then formed by smoothing this with a further EMA. The standard period for this is 9 days,

Perbedaan antara MACD dan garis sinyal seringkali dihitung dan dinyatakan tidak dalam bentuk garis tetapi dalam bentuk histogram kotak berisi. Konstruksi ini dibuat oleh Thomas Aspray pada tahun 1986. Cara perhitungannya :

histogram = MACD − sinyal

Pada contoh grafik diatas, menunjukkan ketiganya secara bersamaan. Grafik yang atas adalah harga, grafik yang bawah memiliki garis MACD dalam warna biru dan garis sinyal dalam warna merah dan yang berwarna putih dalam bentuk histogram merupakan perbedaan antara keduanya.
Rangakaian periode dari nilai rata-rata tersebut biasanya ditulis seperti 12,26,9, dan dapat bervariasi. Appel dan analis lainnya telah melakukan percobaan dengan berbagai kombinasi.

Momentum Analisis

Momentum dan laju perubahan (rate of change, ROC) adalah suatu indikator sederhana dalam melakukan analisis teknis yang memperlihatkan perbedaan antara harga penutupan hari ini dan harga penutupan N-hari yang lalu. Momentum adalah merupakan perbedaan yang terjadi.

Tingkat skala perubahan diukur berdasarkan harga penutupan yang lama untuk menggambarkan kenaikan sebagai fraksi dari:

Momentum secara umum adalah harga yang merupakan kelanjutan dari tren. Indikator momentum dan tingkat perubahan menunjukkan nilai positif sewaktu terjadinya kenaikan harga dan nilai negatif sewaktu terjadinya penurunan harga.
Perlintasan naik ke atas menembus nilai nol dapat digunakan sebagai indikator sinyal beli, dan sebaliknya pada perlintasan turun ke bawah melewati nol adalah merupakan indikator sinyal jual. Seberapa rendah (sewaktu negatif) atau tingginya (sewaktu positif) indikator dapat menunjukkan seberapa kuatnya suatu tren.
Cara momentum menunjukkan perubahan absolut misalnya apabila terdapat kenaikan 300 sepanjang 20 hari, dimana tingkat perubahan memperlihatkan hal tersebut sebagai 0,25 untuk kenaikan sebesar 25% sepanjang periode yang sama.

Buffet Rules

Warren Buffett is arguably the world's greatest stock investor. He's also a bit of a philosopher. He pares down his investment ideas into simple, memorable sound bites. Do you know what his homespun sayings really mean? Does his philosophy hold up in today's difficult environment? Find out below.

More from Investopedia.com: • The Buffett Philosophy • Baby Buffett Portfolio: His 6 Best Long-Term Picks • Think Like Warren Buffett

"Rule No. 1: Never Lose Money. Rule No. 2: Never Forget Rule No. 1."
Buffett personally lost about $23 billion in the financial crisis of 2008, and his company, Berkshire Hathaway, lost its revered AAA ratings. So how can he tell us to never lose money?
He's referring to the mindset of a sensible investor. Don't be frivolous. Don't gamble. Don't go into an investment with a cavalier attitude that it's OK to lose. Be informed. Do your homework. Buffett invests only in companies he thoroughly researches and understands. He doesn't go into an investment prepared to lose, and neither should you.
Buffett believes the most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. A successful investor doesn't focus on being with or against the crowd.
The stock market will swing up and down. But in good times and bad, Buffett stays focused on his goals. So should we. (This esteemed investor rarely changes his long-term investing strategy no matter what the market does.

More from Yahoo! Finance: • Warren Buffett's Worst Mistakes • 10 Things Millionaires Won't Tell You • Watch Out for New Credit Card Traps Visit the Banking & Budgeting Center

"If The Business Does Well, the Stock Eventually Follows"
The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham convinced Buffett that investing in a stock equates to owning a piece of the business. So when he searches for a stock to invest in, Buffett seeks out businesses that exhibit favorable long-term prospects. Does the company have a consistent operating history? Does it have a dominant business franchise? Is the business generating high and sustainable profit margins? If the company's share price is trading below expectations for its future growth, then it's a stock Buffett may want to own.
Buffett never buys anything unless he can write down his reasons why he'll pay a specific price per share for a particular company. Do you do the same?
"It's Far Better to Buy a Wonderful Company at a Fair Price Than a Fair Company at a Wonderful Price"
Buffett is a value investor who likes to buy quality stocks at rock-bottom prices. His real goal is to build more and more operating power for Berkshire Hathaway by owning stocks that will generate solid profits and capital appreciation for years to come. When the markets reeled during the recent financial crisis, Buffett was stockpiling great long-term investments by investing billions in names like General Electric and Goldman Sachs.
To pick stocks well, investors must set down criteria for uncovering good businesses, and stick to their discipline. You might, for example, seek companies that offer a durable product or service and also have solid operating earnings and the germ for future profits. You might establish a minimum market capitalization you're willing to accept, and a maximum P/E ratio or debt level. Finding the right company at the right price -- with a margin for safety against unknown market risk -- is the ultimate goal.
Remember, the price you pay for a stock isn't the same as the value you get. Successful investors know the difference.
"Our Favorite Holding Period Is Forever"
How long should you hold a stock? Buffett says if you don't feel comfortable owning a stock for 10 years, you shouldn't own it for 10 minutes. Even during the period he called the "Financial Pearl Harbor," Buffett loyally held on to the bulk of his portfolio.
Unless a company has suffered a sea change in prospects, such as impossible labor problems or product obsolescence, a long holding period will keep an investor from acting too human. That is, being too fearful or too greedy can cause investors to sell stocks at the bottom or buy at the peak -- and destroy portfolio appreciation for the long run.
You may think the recent financial meltdown changed things, but don't be fooled: those unfussy sayings from the Oracle of Omaha still RULE!

Bearish Dark Cloud

Bearish Dark Cloud, as the word indicate a bear means downtrend. It indicated that a particular stock will start to drop from today. Bearish Dark Cloud Cover showing with the last two candles of long white then accompany with black candle fall more than the mid of white candle. This reliability is high means strong indication there is a reversal point from upward to downward. However, it needs one confirmation for tomorrow, if tomorrow is black candle then confirm drop.

This signal indication showing an upward point for a few days then suddenly cover by black cloud more than half of the previous white candle. And it means red alert for particular stock or high level of reliability.

This pattern shown on PGAS stock today as the stock yesterday showing a white and being cover by black candle or dark cloud more than half of yesterday white cloud. Additionally PGAS stock within its trendline of support then if drop tomorrow, it means dark cloud covering and will bearish, which is also a break from support and will continue to drop from trend line. Two technical will confirm it will be bad for the day and produce downtrend. However, if tomorrow stock rebound, it will at least clear the dark cloud and continue at its support trend line and will produce bullish than bearish. (Look at the chart below for better picture)

All the best from learning technical today so lets hope bandar, terroris, and mafia will lift it up from darkness. I am William Chen for smart traders and investors, lets learn the most skills in life... All the best Will I Am Chen... GBU

Bullish Harami Cross

One of the candle technical to show reversal point on short term will be Bullish Harami Cross. This pattern indicate the downturn of a few days or prior drop or black candle for 3-4 days before with the last long black candle shown afterward. The long black candle follow by doji for the next day to indicate bullish harami. Although this is not highly reliable to indicate reversal, so confirmation might be needed to show it is reversal means if tomorrow white candle then it will goes up. Additionally Harami Cross indicate the lowest point of stock dropped for many days.

 This pattern showing on ELSA chart today as the stock dropped for many days and finally closed with doji in the mid of long black candle yesterday. And lets hope Bandar, Mafia, or Terroris will follow this pattern ha...

Although the theory showing this is a turning point but practically it is not meant so as technical only contribute around 80% of the truth. The 100% will be the one who hold Rp 1 trillions will buy the certain share. All the best Will I Am Chen... GBU

Happy new year 1.01.10

Happy to all the one who have past the 2009. Many losses or sadness in 2009 should be left behind as it can not be changed. What can we do now is to focus ahead to 2010 or more. What i means is a bit on investing.

Future is not happen, so we can change at least start and find direction from today. Lets reflect and analyze our mistake in the past and try to plan in the new year. May be our mistake is buy and price drop, then sell and price goes up lets see why its happen, buy at wrong time? maybe. May be many times we trade and we lose, so investing should be ok right? we are not going to die tomorrow so focus on long term is ok if you plan for future. All is depend on individual.

Investing would be good idea if you see in better picture. Rather than see the stock as a piece of paper that can give us money, it is good to see it as a business opportunities. Buy stock with a good fundamental and give a lot of dividends, as even when its drop it still give dividend to gain. Lets us look at future and put the picture in your mind that you are the director of TLKM, PTBA, ITMG, BUMI, or even ELSA. Example what I am planning is on ELSA fundamental is good, valuation is still low, but the problem is too few players to lift the stock price. Additionally one of its director is holding only around 1000 lots of shares. And you know what i mean..Whether it is correct decision or not, I do not know and I dont know the future but i see it good and hope is good. When all uncertainties attacking only hope that we rely on.

Lets hope God will bring you to better level in 2010 and see you as a director in TLKM, BUMI, PTBA, ASII and so on... All the best.. Will I Am Chen... May it inspired you all... GBU

The persistent theory of Buffet

One of the greatest and tested all the time theory of Buffet is about be afraid when everybody is optimistic. Everytime when the market recover or uptrend or so called bullish, many analysts will give a wonderful hope for tomorrow. Wonderful statement should be given, since market is good. Give different or reverse opinion people will assumed you are mad analysts. This is the caution where if stocks up or bullish the only way to go is down or bearish. When the market is crash many people will give negative perceptions. Negative opinion is the golden time to buy and be greed. Since, stocks dropped down there is no where to go unless upward. So, lets us all wait for a bad comment or analysis from many analysts in newspapers, TV, or internet. Happy trading wait for golden time of pessimism... Will I Am Chen... GBU

Theory of Gravity

Everything that throw up will goes down to earth, this is called the theory of gravity. I think gravity not only happen on BUMI (I means earth ha...), but also applicable to BUMI (I means stock la...). Stock is never goes up everyday. It will goes up and down but uptrend, or it will goes down and up but downtrend. So, it need not to worry because everything goes down will go up one day with just a matter of time theory and also the trend theory that would make it reverse. Dont forget the rebound theory too. . So many theory make confuse, but without theory no foundation for making decision. . Stock is quite complicated so study never end every day... Happy study Will I AM Chen... GBU

How is market work?

Market is a place of buyers and sellers meet together in exchange of goods and services. The works of market is that if there is one person gain, the expense will be another people. This is similar to stock market as well, whereby many transactions took place within a second. if the market price is up then consider many will gain. How if the market is fall? cut loss? another people gain by selling faster? Hence, the market system will not let all people gain forever because there is no stock that goes up every moment. . This is true such as if i earn money, then u spend money.

The matter of stock is not about I gain and you loss but rather it is about the timing process that matter. Timing is the most valuable moment in stock trading, whereby if you late to sell will cost you more or you earn lesser. Most of the time we think about the gain, but the problem is about the time when you buy and sell that give you gain.

So, the thought of the day is about what time to buy stock? and the most appropriate answer is nobody know. But what can we do is to study the time and surely after 4 o'clock the price of stock is the same. . all the best Will I Am Chen... GBU

Funny story for understanding stock

Once upon a time, there is a richest man in universe ever born on earth. He is richer than anybody ever live on earth, as you can name it Warren buffet? Bill Gates? William Chen? are you sure, I think the last was incorrectly added by the author, some may add "ai au lo". As you know warren buffet richest more derived from stocks, and Gates more on his company microsoft? William Chen no idea hm.... since mistakenly written, so richest too among the poor.

Back to the original story, oh ya his name without proudly present is catcut (potong kucing in Bahasa Indonesia). How nonsense name can be the richest man in the universe? , but fortunately it is not about the name that matter. So, it is about the potential of any man who have opportunity to be the best. One day he visit best book store in town and saw warren buffet face on a book cover. He is wondering why his face never shown up on newspaper or any books? May be to be well known I have to do things like buffet, he thought.

A few minutes later, he opens the first page of and notices that buffet is an investor with area in stock market. The problem is what is stock? He remembered last time professional accounting lecturer taught him that stock is similar to inventory, whereby a company buy and sell an item (e.g. furniture). Additionally, he thought stock related with beginning stock? ending stock? purchases? returns inwards? returns outwards? and so on. So, he read the first chapter and see to be continued... Will I Am Chen happy learning.. GBU

FTA - Faith Technical Analysis

Remembering the following phrases "

1. Matthew 17:20
   He replied, "Because you have so little faith. I tell you the truth, if you have faith as small as a mustard seed, you can say to this mountain, 'Move from here to there' and it will move. Nothing will be impossible for you."
   Matthew 17:19-21 (in Context) Matthew 17 (Whole Chapter)

The above parable remind me sometimes, we need some faith in playing stock. How to have faith is different from optimism more than that. So, check your faith sometime it can move BUMI too ha... Sometime it need more than technical analysis, just add faith so become FTA would be better lo... happy trading Will I Am Chen... GBU

Strategic trading for rebound

Inspired by the word "badai suatu hari akan melunak". Trading strategy for stock that already drop for many days normally three days or four days consecutively, surely one day will rebound - badai pun menyerah. This is applicable to blue chip stocks if you notice three days red candle (drop), signal for rebound; four days then even more sure 90% up, with the condition if market not crash like before. Three black crow, will be one white dove the next day at least. . Now go find blue chips drop for 3 days and get 1 white dove back here... happy trading ... Will I Am Chen.. GBU

A bit on trend analysis

Sometimes trend analysis might not showing what should happen in the stock prices , but rather showed a contrary or reverse result. This is such as example of a trend line breaches its bottom lowest prices, would indicate the price to drop for the next coming days. However, the market showed contrary, it is rebound in the next days where many shares goes up. The problem is not the trend as the trend would mean downtrend, with a bit fluctuation up and down but at the end its down (downtrend). So break lowest prices it will go down further for next coming days, but break high prices will increase the prices in the next couple days. Remember not one day. Hope this lesson will help the reader to gain insight on stock. Any comment pls give me my students or any other readers to improve trading skills. All the best WILL I AM Chen.... GBU